Good Riddance to 2009 and the last Decade. Welcome 2010?

As my father was in the Air Force we were stationed overseas, when I was a young lad. We spent 3 years in England. I have so many wonderful memories of my time there, and maybe it was because I was young, but what I remember most were various sayings, slang and colloquislisms.

One of my favorite sayings was “Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish”. Since I was there in the early sixties, you still heard things like “Chip Chip Cheerio” (a way to say goodbye in british slang) and all that sort of rot. So that is the genisis of the title.

Anyway that is a whole minute of drivel you will never get back… Sorry.

OK so it looks like I hate the last 10 years…. Hate is a harsh word, but I would say it has been a roller coaster for many. Do you realize the changes that have occured in the last decade? The digital age is flourishing and this is just the beginning. Twitter, Facebook, the iPhone, digital cameras to name a few.

September 11th, which was the catalyst for starting one of the longest periods of war we have ever had. The tech bubble, the real estate boom and now bust. Our first African American President.

There have been highs and lows and personally my life was pretty blessed. We are now coming into what I believe is a long recovery. This recovery will not be a straight line back, but more of a roller coaster at times.

So how about the next 10?

Do I welcome them or cringe as I think about the hardships and pain many will have to endure? To be honest, even though I have been writing about gloom and doom lately, I am very optimistic. We can not continue to do the things we have done in this industry over the next ten years and survive. We have to come up with new and better paradigms as these are new times. We have to embrace technology as it is not going away. Many I have talked to lately tell me that most of the people that count in this industry will not utilize social networking and technology tools. Let me tell you that as I have been in the technology field for over 30 years, on thing is absolute; change or die.

Remember the fax machine, the cell phone, the microwave, ATM cards, email? What do they have in common? They were all new technologies at one time that people avoided like the plague, until a tipping point occured when you either had to succomb to the inevitability that you had to change or be left dangling in the cold.

Don’t wait to learn how to use social media and the Internet for more that checking your spam ridden email accounts.

We have started the Commercial Real Estate Distressed Assets Association (CREDAA) and we know we will not cure the world of poverty and hunger or come up with a new cancer cure, but we will be working to educate and find solutions to our current commercial real estate dilemmas.

I look forward to working with industry professionals, bankers and investors to find the best solutions to end the madness that is our current situation. We at CREDAA really believe that the holding of assets by banks, the FDIC and other authorities, is a recipe for disaster and at least it will cause our recovery to last so much longer than need be.

We do not believe CREDAA will save the world, but we will be active at trying to help turn around a small portion of it. Margaret Mead wrote “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, commited citizens can change the world. Indeed it’s the only thing that ever has.”

We invite you to join us in our quest to go from Reactive Survival Mode to Educated Self Empowerment Mode which will lead us to the land of Sustained Abundance and Prosperity. www.CREDAA.com

Happy Holidays to you and yours

JW Najarian

CREPIG
CREDAA

Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis – What!?

In a recent article on Bloomberg.com Geithner is asked about Commercial Real Estate setting off another banking crises.

Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis – By Rebecca Christie and John McCormick

Bloomberg.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGGKUQhUZqaQ

The GDP number was in reality flat, without the stimulus attached.

Geithner seems to be talking out both sides of his mouth saying there are signs that things are getting better and in the same sentence saying how hard it will be going forward.

“I don’t think so,” Geithner said, when asked whether commercial real estate could set off another banking meltdown. “That’s a problem the economy can manage through even though it’s going to be still exceptionally difficult.”

As opposed to crises what is difficult? What does difficult look like?

If we look at this through the 5 stages of grief analogy:

1. Denial
2. Anger / Resentment
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

Then I would say, although everyone goes through these phases at different speeds; collectively our country is in stage one Denial.

Shouldn’t there be 6 stages here? Where is blame?. Watch Fox and MSNBC and they are in a mix of denial, anger and blame.

Geithner seems to say that we have to make a lot of changes to make the economy less vulnerable to “catastrophic” damage.

I know that the federal government is trying to do everything they can to keep all of us in our comfort zone, some more than others, but isn’t this like the over protective mother that keeps their child out of harm’s way to the point where the child is emotionally, socially and environmentally scarred?

By controlling everything and not allowing anything to just fail; are we helping fix or just prolonging the inevitable?

We may not see the banks go into crisis over what is surely coming up from a toxic mixture of unemployment, real estate market collapse, increasing inflation and weakening dollar, but not because they necessarily shouldn’t.

Become a member of the Commercial Real Estate Distressed Assets Association and come help us work on and effect positive change. http://www.credaa.com

JW Najarian

CREPIG
CREDAA